Saturday, January 5, 2013
All the men, too many men; or, Supporting Actor problems
In some ways the Oscar race is bound to frustrate whatever happens. Take for example the seemingly wide open supporting category this year (thus far). It could be something positive because chances are when the nominees are announced on Thursday we’ll get some surprises which people are always accusing the nominations of being without. On the other hand, there is some solace ti take in races which are easily predictable. The knowledge of what the nominees are before hands allows you to temper your expectations and avoid any disappointments. Which is worse, the promise of bitter disappointment or the certainty of general (allegedly) tedious nominees?
Who even knows?
But, the supporting actors. Although I may possibly accede that as far as winners go it seems wide open, on the nomination front I wonder if it’s really such an open game. At this point I’m least interested in predicting winners, choosing the nominees is much more fun. And, so many options – although I do have to wonder how many are truly viable.
If you ask me on the spot who I think ends up nominated I’d be inclined to go – Arkin, DeNiro, DiCaprio, Hoffman, Jones.
It seems likely a viable group who would all make sense. And I look at it and I immediately think, no – this isn’t happening. Is it me and my general desire to make everything interesting by making it more complex or are we really assuming that it’s all cut-and-dry when it’s possibly not? Let’s wade through the possibilities….
But, if not these four, then who?
The likelihood of Waltz replacing Django is one I wrestle with. Most of it because even as he’s underwhelmed me lately I shall always be a strong advocate of DiCaprio and yes, I’d like to see him nominated. On one hand, I say Waltz is a recent winner, DiCaprio seems more ripe for the pickings – why not him? On the other hand, Waltz, too has a plum role and his potential co-lead status could up his chance at crashing the party. Common sense would say SAG and BFCA nod Javier Bardem is the obvious crasher but I remain staunch that it’s not happening.
Of course, I’m a bit ambivalent to the performance somewhat, but even then how many curves has SAG thrown us that have not made it to the Oscars (Highmore, Garner, Cheadle, Christensen) and logic would suggest that Skyfall’s commercial success ups Bardem’s status but I remain unconvinced. Below that we have McConaughey who would have been an obvious inclusion but for him not being anywhere lately, or Redmayne who could have been had Les Mis stuck its landing stronger, or Jackson had Waltz if the love for Django was truly overwhelming. Logically, either of these men could still surprise….but, I’m betting on another horse to shake things up, even if I’m being completely ridiculous and going with my heart and not my head.
....my potentially insane prediction for a wildcard spot, and more Supporting musings....
Why can’t Ewan McGregor barrel through and surprise in the supporting category?
This category is not immune to surprises, and I feel there will be one and I just keep coming back to Ewan. Perhaps foolishly, the germ of this idea came when Angelina Jolie held that special screening to fête Ewan’s work – and that says little other than a specific person liking the film. He hasn’t been lucky with precursors…and yet…but surely those who see Naomi and nominate her will add him on? Sort of like Djimon getting in for In America from those who saw Morton? Perhaps I’m foolishly blathering, and perhaps I’ll change my mind Thursday, but I’ll chose Ewan as a wildcard spot.
PREDICTIONS (alpha): Alan Arkin in Argo; Robert DeNiro in Silver Linings Playbook; Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained; Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln; Ewan McGregor in The Impossible
ALTERNATES (probability): Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master; Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained; Samuel Jackson in Django Unchained; Javier Bardem in Skyfall
…but, really, what do I know? I tend to over think these things. Perhaps it’ll be Arkin, DeNiro, DiCaprio, Hoffman and Jones or even Arkin, Bardem, DeNiro, Hoffman and Jones. It could be a toss-up, and then again it might not.
What do you think?